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Nov 12, 2012
11/12
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dominic is still with us. i suppose the question is what we've sort of global equities have priced in in terms of a scenario for the fiscal cliff. what do you think it is? >> i think markets have been sanguine about the whole issue and it's only after the election that we began to see nervousness. and i still think the likely outcome is the market will have to put further pressure on both sides before a deal is finally done. and i actually don't think we'll good a deal done this side of the new year. >> you yu don't? >> no, i don't. because the republicans have put themselves in a difficult position because they've actually said no way that they will endorse tax hikes. if they allow the tax increases to automatically go through on the 31st, they can then talk about tax cuts for the middle classes in january. it's cynical, but it may be what actually happens. >> so what happens on that? because there are some saying u.s. equitieses have already priced in the fiscal cliff and they look at it as a measuring of eq
dominic is still with us. i suppose the question is what we've sort of global equities have priced in in terms of a scenario for the fiscal cliff. what do you think it is? >> i think markets have been sanguine about the whole issue and it's only after the election that we began to see nervousness. and i still think the likely outcome is the market will have to put further pressure on both sides before a deal is finally done. and i actually don't think we'll good a deal done this side of...
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Nov 23, 2012
11/12
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let us know. worldwide@cnbc.com, at@cnbcwex,@ rosswestgate. >>> we'll be in tell a vee with the latel aviv with the latest when we come back. can i still ship a gift in time for christmas? yeah, sure you can. great. where's your gift? uh... whew. [ male announcer ] break from the holiday stress. ship fedex express by december 22nd for christmas delivery. >>> a recap of the headlines. draghi defends plans for a banking supervise or saying the central bank is the best candidate for the job. germany's ifo business climate index rises above forecasts for november. and the eu wubudget battle rage on as they pail to reach a compromise. israeli gunfire has reportedly killed a palestinian along the gaza border. stephanie gosk joining us. i don't know if you have anymore information about this, but if true, of course that would be the first incident since the cease fire. what's the latest there. >> >> it would be, ross. our team on the ground in gaza tells us this was a 20-year-old kid, he was with his fri
let us know. worldwide@cnbc.com, at@cnbcwex,@ rosswestgate. >>> we'll be in tell a vee with the latel aviv with the latest when we come back. can i still ship a gift in time for christmas? yeah, sure you can. great. where's your gift? uh... whew. [ male announcer ] break from the holiday stress. ship fedex express by december 22nd for christmas delivery. >>> a recap of the headlines. draghi defends plans for a banking supervise or saying the central bank is the best candidate...
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Nov 9, 2012
11/12
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joining us is stefan. thanks for joining us. how much can we discount hurricane sandy and how much might it be of benefit in terms of helping to harden rates? >> well, as far as it looks now, it's not really an event basically having a big influence on rates. we did have a lot of capital in the reinsurance industry and in that regard, plenty of capacity. so estimated 17 to 20 billion for insurance losses whether not really be enough to have a real impact on pricing. but i think psychologically, it will help to shape rates going forward and especially also next year into july with renewals in the u.s. and worldwide having a small positive impact. but generally the average reinsurance rate environment will not change based on sandy loss only. >> what's your take on the insurers generally speaking, do you like them as group, what are issues they need to face to see share outperformance? >> it will some quite some time to get some decent estimates. there's uncertainties in many regards and clearly estimates my tend upwards from the
joining us is stefan. thanks for joining us. how much can we discount hurricane sandy and how much might it be of benefit in terms of helping to harden rates? >> well, as far as it looks now, it's not really an event basically having a big influence on rates. we did have a lot of capital in the reinsurance industry and in that regard, plenty of capacity. so estimated 17 to 20 billion for insurance losses whether not really be enough to have a real impact on pricing. but i think...
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Nov 22, 2012
11/12
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joining us, chief european economist. ricar ricardo, thanks for joining us. so still a negative territory. what does this point to in terms of the economic decline for the fourth quarter? >> i think it's in line with the idea that real sgchlt dp will decline by at least 0.2%, possibly 0.3%. it will give us a negative entry point in 2013 when i expect an average growth of minus 0.2%. so still moderately recession territory. >> the german flash composite pmi 47.9, services 48, manufacturing 46.8, is germany -- we just saw the 0.2% print. is girl aermany going to have a negative contract? >> i'm looking for a contraction of minus 0.2. so only aed modest one. i expect activity will stabilize in q1 of next year, but obviously that requires a favorable external environment, meaning u.s. not going into this deep due to the fiscal cliff. and also signs of improvement in asia. >> meanwhile the french pmi says the survey there suggests a 0.7% gdp drop in quarter 4 for france. >> that seems quite large. we've seen in recent quarters numbers out of front which were highe
joining us, chief european economist. ricar ricardo, thanks for joining us. so still a negative territory. what does this point to in terms of the economic decline for the fourth quarter? >> i think it's in line with the idea that real sgchlt dp will decline by at least 0.2%, possibly 0.3%. it will give us a negative entry point in 2013 when i expect an average growth of minus 0.2%. so still moderately recession territory. >> the german flash composite pmi 47.9, services 48,...
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Nov 6, 2012
11/12
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he used the u.n., nato, much more of an internationalist, using the transatlantic institutions, networks that are in place to sort of bring europe back into the fold, firm up the alliance. let's remember romney did make his own campaign trip to europe. it will be remembered mostly by his gaffes in britain and poland, but it's telling that he chose britt tip and poland as places he visited. toes were two members of the bush era, both members who participated in the iraq war, full supporters of that war. is there was worry that the national would be pushed aside. particularly among foreign policy elites here in europe. >> peter, thanks for that. good to speak to you. >> we're also on central bank watch this week and the rba decided to hold off on further easing. this report comes from sydney. >> it was always going to be a call and it has surprised some in the market leaving rates unchanged. aussie dollar hitting session highs above 1.04 u.s. the banks did leave the door open for further stimulus highlighting the strength in the aussie dollar and saying policy is appropriate for the time b
he used the u.n., nato, much more of an internationalist, using the transatlantic institutions, networks that are in place to sort of bring europe back into the fold, firm up the alliance. let's remember romney did make his own campaign trip to europe. it will be remembered mostly by his gaffes in britain and poland, but it's telling that he chose britt tip and poland as places he visited. toes were two members of the bush era, both members who participated in the iraq war, full supporters of...
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Nov 30, 2012
11/12
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thank you for joining us. you can give a sense as to whether this stimulus package is expected to finally revive hopes for japan's economy? >> i'm afraid that we've seen too much of that, it's been already like two decades seeing fiscal and monetary packages coming in on top of an economy that actually needed deleveraging. and there's lots of lessons we can learn for europe on japan's experience. there's really not much you can do. you need to go through that what japan needs is liberalization. opening up to everything you can imagine which comes from a broad labor force to competition. that's what japan really needs. so i am not very positive on this additional fiscal stimulus package. >> is what kind of structural reform are you talking about? because it does seem as though for an economy like japan's, it is fiscal stimulus, it is monetary stimulus that has to come in and avoid a broader downturn. >> as i mentioned, i mean, fiscal and monetary stimulus are welcome when you are in the process of recovery. but
thank you for joining us. you can give a sense as to whether this stimulus package is expected to finally revive hopes for japan's economy? >> i'm afraid that we've seen too much of that, it's been already like two decades seeing fiscal and monetary packages coming in on top of an economy that actually needed deleveraging. and there's lots of lessons we can learn for europe on japan's experience. there's really not much you can do. you need to go through that what japan needs is...
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Nov 19, 2012
11/12
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mike, good to have you with us. just talk me through some of the points from this recent research. >> well, business travel is the leading indicator for the business at large for the economy at large. so going off the fiscal cliff will result in a severe and immediate impact, not only just to business travel, but to the overall economy. this is not a good thing obviously. and something that lawmakers need to work very hard to a vote. >> the up in number of business is set to drop in 2013, but we'd see a pick up in 2014. in other words, if they don't reach an agreement on the fiscal cliff, is it just a nine month bleep and then we recover? >> business travel is a leading indicator. so as companies want to grow top line again, they will invest this business travel at some point. but clearly avoiding the fiscal cliff will be a good thing because companies wouldn't have to go through a severe cut back first before starting that growth pattern again. business travel drives the economy. it's an investment that companies m
mike, good to have you with us. just talk me through some of the points from this recent research. >> well, business travel is the leading indicator for the business at large for the economy at large. so going off the fiscal cliff will result in a severe and immediate impact, not only just to business travel, but to the overall economy. this is not a good thing obviously. and something that lawmakers need to work very hard to a vote. >> the up in number of business is set to drop in...
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Nov 13, 2012
11/12
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justin, thanks for joining us. first of all, this little spat on the two year extension, how much >> of course they're politicians and in jean claude's own words, different circumstances. they have to get reelected. christine lagarde is head of the imf and the imf needs to get the problem sorted out as quickly as possible regardless of political concerns. so you can see which way they're coming from here. as i say, the mnumber 120% is plucked out of the air. there already appears differences over what the current 2020 is, some are saying 14 #%. but reporting that some of the troy came members are saying this, others saying between 140 and 150. of course they do rely on quite a lot of assumptions about gross tax receipts and spending cuts. >> with a matters isn't the 2020 versus 2022 language. what they're implying is whether the official sector has to take. yesterday we heard smaghi say he thinks a maturity extension will happen. so is that going to extend to the official sector and does it have to in your view? >>
justin, thanks for joining us. first of all, this little spat on the two year extension, how much >> of course they're politicians and in jean claude's own words, different circumstances. they have to get reelected. christine lagarde is head of the imf and the imf needs to get the problem sorted out as quickly as possible regardless of political concerns. so you can see which way they're coming from here. as i say, the mnumber 120% is plucked out of the air. there already appears...
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Nov 28, 2012
11/12
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thanks for joining us. here's a quick look at what else you've been hearing from some of the experts on our program this morning. >> looking somewhat rich. also cautious on finland where we think there could be some problem next year also regarding rating. >> the sterling i think represents the best and i would avoid the euro like the plague. >> depend on big financial leverage to make money. and those businesses were the customers that were struggling. they have been leveraged on the left-hand side. so that is a fundamentally tricky business. >> now the eu zone to approve the restructuring plans of spanish banks and he says the plan will cost a total of $37 billion euros. he said nationalized banks will reduce their number of branches by up to 50%. this follows a deal for a token price of one euro. he said that plan is cheaper than it would have been to liquidate the bank altogether. fitch has slashed argentina's credit rating by five notches, citing the risk of probable default. this after a u.s. court or
thanks for joining us. here's a quick look at what else you've been hearing from some of the experts on our program this morning. >> looking somewhat rich. also cautious on finland where we think there could be some problem next year also regarding rating. >> the sterling i think represents the best and i would avoid the euro like the plague. >> depend on big financial leverage to make money. and those businesses were the customers that were struggling. they have been...
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Nov 14, 2012
11/12
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eunice is with us in beijing. eunice, as we look from where we are at the moment, do we have any feeling on how many members there will be in that standing committee? the implications of that and the likely makeup? >> so far, we know that it's going to be somewhere between seven and nine. that's the number that people have been throwing out there. there's been a lot of expectation that the number on the standing committee, which is currently at nine, will be trimmed down to seven, which could potentially mean that policy will be easier to push through. some of the other things that people are talking about here is just how incredible it is that this is now the end of an era for the current president as well as the premier, really stepping aside as party chiefs for the next generation of leaders. now, the delegates today had come together and they approved the work report, which is endorsed by the president. >> translator: the most important policies and arrangements and greatest achievements will surely play a cri
eunice is with us in beijing. eunice, as we look from where we are at the moment, do we have any feeling on how many members there will be in that standing committee? the implications of that and the likely makeup? >> so far, we know that it's going to be somewhere between seven and nine. that's the number that people have been throwing out there. there's been a lot of expectation that the number on the standing committee, which is currently at nine, will be trimmed down to seven, which...
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Nov 27, 2012
11/12
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what about taking some pressure off us? we have a massive debt burden, we really need some compensation here, as well. but it's worth taking a step back even from that and saying the germans and other surface running countries in europe always did have the opportunity to bail out the deficit countries, but almost the obligation. that's what happens if you create a united states of europe. just like alabama was bailed out by new york state or whatever it is. >> i think you were struggling to find a strong state there for a second. >> was a little bit. so the actual transfers aren't necessarily the problem. the problems are two fold. the first as you alluded to is the internal competitiveness of particularly the peripheral countries. when they joined the euro, they took advantage of the low borrowing costs to borrow and spend up a storm, public sector wages went up. and they become dramatically uncompetitive. and the easy way is to leave the euro. the painful way is to stay. so the other thing to bear in mind is the banks. ba
what about taking some pressure off us? we have a massive debt burden, we really need some compensation here, as well. but it's worth taking a step back even from that and saying the germans and other surface running countries in europe always did have the opportunity to bail out the deficit countries, but almost the obligation. that's what happens if you create a united states of europe. just like alabama was bailed out by new york state or whatever it is. >> i think you were struggling...
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Nov 21, 2012
11/12
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thank you for joining us. the central bank has been criticized by some for not cutting sooner and more aggressively. and the key policy rate still sits at 4.5% with growth coming down so rapidly, shouldn't the bank be moving more quickly. >> well, of course, i can talk about myself and my own views, and i think that we are trying still to continue saying normal monetary policy, and when i look around in europe, especially western europe, i don't see many similar cases. that does not necessarily mean that we are wrong. >> who are you more critical of, the bank of england with its qe policy, or the ecb, which has been r been resistant on moving more quickly? >> i would put more criticism on the bank of england or the fed. in any case, i would agree with what a german philosopher once wrote in 2009 that would resolve around policies that it is a kind of a robbery of the future by the present. we are trying to avoid that. to an extent, it is possible for a small open economy. >> all well and good academically, but
thank you for joining us. the central bank has been criticized by some for not cutting sooner and more aggressively. and the key policy rate still sits at 4.5% with growth coming down so rapidly, shouldn't the bank be moving more quickly. >> well, of course, i can talk about myself and my own views, and i think that we are trying still to continue saying normal monetary policy, and when i look around in europe, especially western europe, i don't see many similar cases. that does not...
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Nov 5, 2012
11/12
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does it really do us much good. pmi reading sub 50 with qe -- >> is the government going to be outvoted this week? his comments have seen to be pinned more towards more rather than lessor not doing anything. charlie bean came out and said i can't see the point of it. >> one thing this economy isn't suffering from is too much growth. so it's not -- the fls is the weapon of choice right now. >> it's a bit of a struggle to figure out what the message is here for the uk economy. you have the employment set of figures which has been stronger than the gdp figure until the gdp figures showed a rebound in the third quarter which now the composite pmi might be fleeting and it points towards weaker growth ahead. >> you have to strip out all of the noise. for my money, we've been growing at about a quarter percent quarter on quarter so not brilliant, but not a disaster either. i think they will start to cool off here the post owe him tick layoffs and they should cast down in reality, but i've said that the last four or five mo
does it really do us much good. pmi reading sub 50 with qe -- >> is the government going to be outvoted this week? his comments have seen to be pinned more towards more rather than lessor not doing anything. charlie bean came out and said i can't see the point of it. >> one thing this economy isn't suffering from is too much growth. so it's not -- the fls is the weapon of choice right now. >> it's a bit of a struggle to figure out what the message is here for the uk economy....
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Nov 29, 2012
11/12
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let us know. worldwide@cnbc.com, @cnbcwex. >>> stick around because coming up, mervyn king is out with the uk's financial stability report and rumors are swirling about new capital requirements for banks. >>> tim geithner will head to capitol hill today to meet with congressional leaders on, yes, the fiscal cliff. geithner's president lead negotiator in the budget talks. he'll meet first with harry reid at 10:00 a.m. and then with house republicans including speaker john boehner, eric cantor and paul ryan. geithner will lunch with mitch mcconnell and then house minority leader nancy pelosi. president obama is signaling he's flexible on on where tax rates should go for the wealthiest americans. a return to the clinton era tax rates would have households pay between 36% to 39%. the president met with a group of 14 ceos wednesday afternoon. they offered support for resolving the if i can crisis with a proposal for higher taxes for those who make more than a quarter million dollars a year. sdl bo >> b
let us know. worldwide@cnbc.com, @cnbcwex. >>> stick around because coming up, mervyn king is out with the uk's financial stability report and rumors are swirling about new capital requirements for banks. >>> tim geithner will head to capitol hill today to meet with congressional leaders on, yes, the fiscal cliff. geithner's president lead negotiator in the budget talks. he'll meet first with harry reid at 10:00 a.m. and then with house republicans including speaker john...